The other night, as I was about to write this column, I got word that a storm was headed for Subic. As my family and friends love to dive and visit the many islands in our country, I wanted to get into the tourism business. So, part of my plans was to start building a dive boat, which is now being done in Subic. As I heard the news about the typhoon, I was worried for a direct hit.
The reliable site of typhoon2000.com showed the storm to be bigger than how it was described to me. It seemed to have a very large scope with two centers. So yesterday at 2am, the winds were already blowing so strong. We had to move out of our room for a while for fear that our glass wall might break.
For the past two months, we have experienced extremely good weather. June and July have been peaceful and the seas and winds have absolutely been calm. From the long hot summer to early July, weather was conducive to our Selecta Ice Cream, Carrier and Condura air-conditioning and refrigerator business. Things have also been good for the restaurant business. People were able to go out without the hassle of rain, so I am sure that the restaurants and food service business have been doing well. Our Joey Pepperoni has been getting good sales as well. Many people have been in malls too to escape the heat, so that’s great traffic flow for businesses inside the malls.
Our company, RFM, reported to its shareholders last week a seven-fold increase in profit and a good growth coming from our ice cream, pasta and other branded products. We are seeing consumer spending, especially in the mass-based market where we derive our growth from. This sector has produced the biggest growth for us. Many other companies and sectors have reported remarkable income growth. Our stock market is at its highest levels in this wave.
While the PGMA era is over. There are quite a number of good things that have been done, which will lay foundations for the Aquino government to build on. The fight against corruption and the simplicity of PNoy as president are also contributing to the increase in our level of confidence. A lot of people have given him the credit of a simple but meaningful idea. The move on the wang wang is symbolic of the realization that the ordinary Pinoy is the boss. If this can be sustained, then it will send the message. As a result, there will be an increase in the confidence of people. This is already reflected in the trust ratings that hit an all time high of 80 plus percent. This is the highest ever achieved by any president.
All of these build confidence, which in the end leads to more people wanting to do good for the country. Foreign and local investments will continue on the upswing. Even the property markets have a positive reflection. As reported in the headlines the other day, Makati villages are approaching the 100t per square meter, which will definitely be record breaking. Those who have purchased real estate in the past nine years will surely be very happy. Our Go Negosyo Seminars (Negosems) are always packed with people. Our books are selling very well that we will be coming out with two more titles this year.
We are witnessing the beginning of the yellow revolution. Yellow symbolizes a positive change, not only from a financial point of view but from a moral point of view. The choice of cabinet members are, so far, good. But, time will tell who among them will really contribute.
Now, you will see a meeting of two points: PGMA’s programs from the past that focused on pushing the economy; and the new administration of PNoy — the yellow revolution of change. PNoy will be the change agent leader. As that happens, we in Go Negosyo must continue to empower the Filipinos with the right enterprising mindset and knowhow to carry the momentum. From here, you will have a strong economy with foundations of right values and principles. This is the basic essence of a country that is taking off.
While we may have a budget deficit, as I look at this from a negosyante point of view, I am not that concerned, especially to the extent bulk of spending are made on strategic infrastructures and education with long term gains. And this can be sustained if we achieve strong growth numbers. Six percent is the target, but it would be great if we can grow to nine or even 10 percent. And this level of growth must be on a sustained basis if we are to become a developed country. Even our 55 billion dollars worth of external debt is not a concern since many of these are private corporations’ debts, plus our international reserves are almost matching the level of our debt.
Exports are also growing at 35 percent. Likewise, BPOs will be a big contributor. OFW remittances will continue to grow. The FOREX reserves will definitely be bigger than our total foreign debt in a year or two. We will be a creditor to other countries when this happens. The peso will positively hit the low 40s and could even break the 40s.
The central bank will be forced to maintain a low interest regime, or else the peso will strengthen further and can lead to a losing momentum in the export and BPO sector. Even OFWs will complain. I see interest rates being kept at low levels. Inflation will be contained with our stable peso.
The yellow revolution has already begun.
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The Negosyo climate is really heating-up as the Philippine Franchise Association launched its week-long Franchise 2010 activities. It started last Monday with the Certified Franchise Executive Program, Franchising Conference and a three-day Expo and Seminar until Sunday, which includes our Negosyo Seminars (Negosems) on Saturday at 1-3:30PM, all at the SMX Convention Center. We encourage everyone to visit and learn a lot about franchising opportunities.